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Favorite To Trust
Jon Rahm (1x) – Rahm has been spectacular as of late. His last 5 appearances go:
- Withdraw (but was cruising to an easy tournament victory) at the Memorial
- T8 at the PGA Championship
- T34 at the AT&T Byron Nelson
- Missed Cut at the Wells Fargo Championship
- T5 at the Masters.
We have to be particularly excited with back-to-back T10s at his last two majors. Rahm is an exceptionally balanced golfer, he gains strokes in every facet of the game. He also has a strong course history at Torrey Pines – in his last 5 appearances at Torrey Pines in the Farmers Insurance Open he has gained nearly 2 strokes per round, in his last 3 Farmers appearances he’s gone T7, 2, T5. The Farmers is split between Torrey Pines North & Torrey Pines South, the U.S. Open will be played exclusively on the South course, but we have reason to believe (over pretty good sample) that Rahm should feel comfortable and ready to go this weekend. Vegas supports Rahm as a strong play, he currently sits as a 9-1 favorite to with the U.S. Open, the players with the next best odds are a good bit back at 15-1.
Challenger Who Could Win
Rory McIlroy (1.15x) – Rory can be a bit up & down, but with his recent win at the Wells Fargo, he has certainly shown that he’s got more upside than he displayed for the first half of the 2021 season. Vegas currently is very high on Rory, his 17-1 odds tied for 4th best as of now, the next best odds among players at or above Rory’s 1.15x multiplier are Finau & Hovland at 23-1. Again, it isn’t the exact same format as the Farmers, but Rory has really succeeded at that event – over the last 6 years (in which Rory has appeared three times), he has finished T16 (2021), T3 (2020), and T5 (2019), gaining an average of 2.3 strokes per round. Rory isn’t the greatest fit for the course, his poor putting as of late could be penalized, his length off the tee might go under rewarded.
Sleeper To Take A Flyer On
Jhonattan Vegas (1.55x) – With some of these high-multiplier guys, you are conceding that they are unlikely to win the tournament, or even finish in the Top 5. But it can be viable to take some shots on these guys who have a decent chance to make it through to the weekend, and can be a lineup differentiator if they are able to finish inside the top 20 or 15. At 1.55x, Vegas’ birdies will be some of the most valuable available this weekend. He’s been consistent although lacking upside as of late – 5 straight made cuts but only two Top 20 finishes (all at non-majors with relatively weak fields). That being said, getting through to the weekend is half the battle. His course history in the Farmers has been good not great, in last 5 appearances he’s averaged +0.37 strokes gained per round (a fine number for a guy at his multiplier). The big factor in Vegas’ projection is his favorable Vegas odds, he’s 201-1 to win, a value more in line with golfers in the 1.3-1.4 range.
This article expresses the personal views of the writer and does not reflect the view(s) of SuperDraft in any way.
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