If you thought Week 9’s main slate hit rock-bottom, wait until you get a load of the grand finale. This week’s Monday Night Football affair between the Chicago Bears and Pittsburgh Steelers is the only game of the week that comes in with a betting total under 40 (39 points). Chicago’s rookie quarterback Justin Fields and Pittsburgh’s first-year smasher Najee Harris will be under the spotlight. We may see the return of running back David Montgomery, who has been on IR with a knee injury since early October.
This matchup sets up as a difficult one for Fields, Montgomery and the Bears’ offense. They are working behind a low-rated offensive line against the Steelers’ top-four defensive line. Let’s look at my top DFS plays on SuperDraft for the Monday game.
Najee Harris, RB, Pittsburgh Steelers (1x score multiplier)
He will be chalky and not seeing any additional points from the multiplier, but Harris should be a staple in all lineups given his talent and volume. Harris leads all NFL running backs in offensive snap percentage (86.3%) and is heavily involved as a pass-catcher. He ranks second among all backs in targets (49) and receptions (37). The Bears rank middle-of-the-pack in fantasy points allowed to running backs (20.8), but Harris’ usage should trump all, especially with the Steelers likely playing with a favorable gamescript as 6.5-point favorites. Harris has averaged 24.3 rush attempts over his last three games and has scored a touchdown in four consecutive games.
Diontae Johnson, WR, Pittsburgh Steelers (1.3x)
With JuJu Smith-Schuster on IR and not soaking up target share, QB Ben Roethlisberger’s pass attempts have been heavily concentrated toward Johnson. He has seen double-digit targets in five of his six games played, including 13 in each of the last two games. All the talk about Johnson’s catching woes have been silenced as he’s reduced last season’s 10.4% drop rate to a miniscule 1.6% this season. Johnson should have his way with perimeter cornerbacks Jaylon Johnson and Kindle Vildor, both of whom were burned repeatedly by 49ers’ wideout Deebo Samuel (6-171-0) last week.
Allen Robinson, WR, Chicago Bears (1.7x)
Robinson has been a third-round bust in season-long drafts and a weekly DFS disappointment. There are countless reasons why ARob should be off our radars when it comes to fantasy. Just one touchdown and 26 receptions in eight games this season with DFS players around the world muttering to themselves, “never again.” Folks looking to get their light exposure to the Bears will likely skip right past Robinson for the more effective Darnell Mooney (1.75x), rookie back Khalil Herbert (1.75x) or possibly Montgomery (1.5x) if he’s active. It’s a difficult matchup for the Bears and playing Robinson these days requires a leap of faith. It would be the end to quite the contrarian week if Robinson actually caught five-plus balls and found his way into the end zone for the first time since Week 2.
1. Najee Harris (1.5x)
2. Diontae Johnson (1.95x)
3. Allen Robinson (2.55x)
4. Khalil Herbert (2.65x) – if David Montgomery is inactive
5. Chase Claypool (2.1x)
This article expresses the personal views of the writer and does not reflect the view(s) of SuperDraft in any way.
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