MIAMI, FLORIDA - JANUARY 04: Bam Adebayo #13 and Jimmy Butler #22 of the Miami Heat celebrate against the Oklahoma City Thunder during the third quarter at American Airlines Arena on January 04, 2021 in Miami, Florida. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. (Photo by Michael Reaves/Getty Images)

Editor’s note: Since the publication of this article, Paul George has been ruled out of tonight’s game. In his absence, LAC players like Luke Kennard, Marcus Morris, & Ivica Zubac stand to benefit.

We are in the thick of it. “It” being the time of year where injuries abound, previously irrelevant players are relevant, and paying attention to pre-lock news is paramount. Indiana has ruled out Turner & Sabonis, they have a number of questionable players. Almost the entire Philadelphia starting lineup is questionable. Adebayo, Butler, & Herro are questionable in Miami. Durant & Leonard have been ruled out opening up opportunity for Kyrie & PG13. We’ve got some news already, there is likely a lot more to come that will shape the slate.

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Jordan Clarkson (1.65x) – Clarkson had a somewhat pedestrian showing on Monday with Donovan Mitchell out – 22 points but a somewhat hollow statline. Nonetheless, in the now 5 games that Mithchell has missed this year, Clarkson’s minutes, usage, and SuperDraft scoring is up 8.3 minutes, nearly 2%, and 8.5 fantasy points compared to when Mitchell is healthy.

Anthony Edwards (1.3x) – The game environment is superb (as evidenced by a monster 239 game total). Both Sacramento & Minnesota play fast & with little defense. With Malik Beasley out, Edwards should command a little more usage in the Minnesota offense, a role in which he was a perennial threat to fire up 20 shots a night early this year.


Paul George (1.25x) – With Kawhi Leonard out, PG13 is expected to be the primary scorer for the Clippers in a modestly high total/competitive game. In the 15 games that Kawhi Leonard has missed between the 2021 & 2020 season, George’s usage rate has been up 7.7%, which has yielded a 6.9 fantasy point delta for George in these games without Leonard.


Karl-Anthony Towns (1.15x) – A case could be made for having one of either KAT or Anthony Edwards in all tournament lineups. The matchup is simply too good to not have a Minnesota player in every lineup. There are paths to KAT & Edwards bricking (maybe a secondary Timberwolves player), but they seem thin. We would recommend avoiding lineups that have both KAT & Towns, as the two have shown some negatively correlation in their first season as teammates.


Damian Lillard (1.15x) – Lillard has been hit by the confluence of a couple factors that have hurt his usage. CJ McCollum is back from injury, he’s taking some usage away from Lillard. Norman Powell was acquired, he’s taking some usage way from Lillard. Lillard’s usage rate has dipped to the 20-30% range where it was in the 30-40% range earlier this year.

Jimmy Butler (1.15x) – The game is a pretty low total (215), and if either of Bam or Herro play there might not be enough opportunity to warrant his aggressive price tag tonight.

This article expresses the personal views of the writer and does not reflect the view(s) of SuperDraft in any way.

Featured Image Source: Michael Reaves | Credit: Getty Images


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