You don’t need me to tell you there are going to be some points scored in Tuscaloosa this weekend. We rarely see an 80-point total in CFB, let alone are we lucky enough to have it on the main DFS slate on SuperDraft. But we can’t just stop the analysis there, so let’s take a look at the chart.
While we do need to look at multipliers to determine the most efficient picks, we don’t need to look too hard to figure out where most points are going to be scored. With the lowest game total barely half of the highest game total, we have plenty of divergence in game archetypes. While ownership will obviously flock to Alabama vs. Ole Miss, there are certainly paths to that game getting out of hand if Ole Miss can’t keep up, and there are definitely other viable games to choose from. Texas hung 70 on a conference foe last week, and TCU gave up 42 to a G5 school (yes, SMU has a great offense, but they are still in the American Conference). Lastly, I don’t know what will happen when two very stoppable forces collide with two very movable objects, but there will probably be some points in the Tennessee/Missouri game as well.
Let’s get after it.
Bryce Young, Alabama (1X score multiplier) Matt Corral, Ole Miss (1.15X)
Not going to spend too much time here. If you want to mitigate risk by taking the two top guys with limited multipliers, play one or both of these dudes. If you can only play one, I’m leaning Corral as he is going to be involved with whatever Ole Miss does, whereas Bama can have a more diversified attack. He also has the slightest of multiplier advantages (.15X) over Young, which to me shouldn’t be a deciding factor as he may outscore Young outright.
Casey Thompson, Texas (1.25X)
When you hang 70 points on an opponent, usually the QB is involved to a pretty impressive degree, and Thompson’s performance against Texas Tech was no exception. After such a performance, Thompson is all but assured the unquestioned QB1 at Texas, and with the TCU defense keyed (and rightfully so) on
Bijan Robinson, it should open things up for Thompson to operate in a similar manner to last weekend. It could mean continuing to find Xavier Worthy, but it could end up with him spreading the ball around or even tucking and running a bit more than he has thus far. While accounting for 6 TDs again may be a stretch, it’s also not out of the question for Thompson in a high-octane offense with a capable opponent operating on the other side of the ball and what is likely to be plenty of pace.
Connor Bazelak, Missouri (1.5X)
Bazelak just keeps finding a way to be fantasy relevant, while continuing to spread the ball out as much as anyone we’ve seen before, making it awfully difficult to find a suitable stacking option. He also doesn’t run, making him less appealing to play naked than other QBs with skill sets that are friendlier to our DFS purposes. That said, exactly 300 yards per game and 10 TDs vs. only 3 INTs will play on any field, and at this much of a premium multiplier, he could be a diamond in the rough with that multiplier allowing you to supercharge his production if he has a true ceiling game.
Bijan Robinson, Texas (1X) Tyler Badie, Missouri (1.1X)
Similar to your Young/Corral decision, if you want to mitigate risk at RB instead of QB by playing one or both of these guys, play them. The cons are simple — for Robinson he’s had one bad game and it was on the road against a team with a historically stout run D, and that’s sort of the matchup he gets here. For Badie, it’s that Bazelak slings it a ton, and despite his pass game involvement, that might luck him out of more touchdowns than would be ideal. The pros are that Bijan is the best back in the country and that Badie touches the ball a ridiculous amount, including 5 catches per game out of the backfield. You may very well use one of Robinson or Badie, but using both and still being able capture the upside of backs with higher multipliers may prove difficult, so there is a decision to be made here already.
Zach Evans, TCU (1.25X)
I’m not sure there is a back in a better contrarian spot than Zach Evans. He isn’t in the Ole Miss/Bama game, he isn’t Bijan Robinson, he doesn’t offer the largest multiplier, and he is on an offense that is an underdog and we are programmed to want running backs from teams that are favorites. But I’m here to tell you that none of that matters and Evans is a tremendous GPP play as he will be involved in all facets of the offense regardless of gamescript and is capable of breaking a long one any time he’s got the ball in his hands. If there were ever a game for Evans to get the elusive 25-plus touches that would help him unlock his ceiling, it would be this one. TCU needs to win this game for a billion reasons, and having Evans be the star of it is how that happens. In this battle of 5-Star RBs from the 2020 recruiting class, I would not be surprised if Evans ends up winning the battle, at a substantially higher multiplier than Robinson.
Leddie Brown, WVU (1.3X)
Speaking of running backs who are favorites, Brown fits the bill and is in a tremendous position going up against a Texas Tech team that was devastated in all facets by Texas last weekend. While Brown may not be as dynamic as Bijan Robinson, he’s got just as much home run threat ability and possibly will have even more involvement, as the game is unlikely to get quite as out of hand, and WVU doesn’t have another back with more than 10 carries all season (Brown has 66). If this is a 25- to 30-carry game for Brown, there aren’t a lot of paths for him to not end up with 100-plus yards and multiple scores, which would be a fantastic day at this high of a multiplier.
Tennessee backfield (multipliers below)
Tiyon Williams (1.45X) or Jabari Small (1.75X) are both options here, as the Missouri run defense has been dreadful all season and just last week gave up 275 yards and 3 scores on 49 carries to a less than overpowering BC rushing attack. Couple that with the fact that the Volunteers may be better off searching for volunteers from the student section to throw passes instead of Joe Milton or Hendon Hooker, and I would think that this is poised to be a big day on the ground. While neither of these are safe, Williams is likely to see a bit more volume while Small has more upside with the higher multiplier- a true risk/reward calculation within a single backfield.
Ole Miss and Alabama WRs (Multipliers Below)
We’re just going to talk about all of these guys at once, because you’ll want to stack this game every which way possible, and the highest upside exposure is going to be via the pass catchers. We’ll start on the Bama side where Ohio St. transfer Jameson Williams (1.1X) has eclipsed incumbent John Metchie (1.2X) in having a lower multiplier and probably also explosiveness, but not in volume. Metchie has 5 or more catches in each game thus far, and Williams is yet to record more than 4. A lot of folks will assume Williams is the Alpha here, but that just isn’t so. Metchie may be yet to break out so far this season, but getting a better multiplier with him than with Williams (even if only slightly) is a gift. If we want to dive deeper into the pool of pass catchers, we may see some more of slot men Slade Bolden (1.7X) or Jojo Earle (1.8X) than we have, but they will rarely be Bryce Young’s first read. Better value might be found in TE Jahleel Billingsley (1.9X), who was in Nick Saban’s doghouse during camp and to start the season but has found his way out and into a breakout 5-105-1 performance against Southern Miss last weekend. Quick note on Billingsley: Because he’s a TE in real life, he’ll cost you an superflex spot, so you better really like him if you want to roster him here.
On to the Ole Miss side, it is the Corral show all the time, but some passes will have to end up in the hands of some pass catchers if he is on his game. Dontario Drummond (1.2X) has been Mr. Reliable so far in this offense, with 5+ catches and a score in each game, and 100-plus yards in two of three thus far. He’s got a lower multiplier than other pieces of this passing attack and will likely be the focal point of Nick Saban’s secondary, so it would be wise to also consider some potential pivots if Drummond isn’t able to break free of the extra attention. Those can be found in the form of Jonathan Mingo (1.45X) who has put up two very impressive games in his own right and Braylon Sanders (1.65X who put up a 4-74-1 against Tulane and seems to be emerging as another critical weapon in Corral’s arsenal.
Xavier Worthy, Texas (1.4X)
The man from whom many puns will be derived made a big splash against Texas Tech, putting up a ridiculous 5-100-3 line and showing obvious chemistry with now entrenched QB Casey Thompson. While his multiplier isn’t what it once was, he is worthy (had to) of the change given his performance. With all the attention on Bijan Robinson, and with capable pass catchers filling out the formation preventing TCU from locking on to Worthy, he should have plenty of room to operate and fill up the stat sheet once again.
Jaquarii Roberson, Wake Forest (1.6X)
The year is 2024, Jaquarii Roberson still somehow has eligibility but has a 2X multiplier, and you will find me in these parts recommending him as he is due for a breakout game. But seriously, he’s due. He showed signs of life against the Hoos last weekend, but Wake got out to a big lead and didn’t need to do much besides run once up big. Louisville has a similarly soft defense and a potent enough offense to keep up as evidenced by the relatively narrow 6.5-point spread, so we should see a more vertically inclined Wake attack deeper into the game. Roberson was considered easily Wake’s top WR going into this season, and getting him at a once again massive multiplier is too good to pass up.
Bo Melton, Rutgers (1.65X)
Melton was off to a blistering start to the season (in the context of a Rutgers WR being limited by their QB play, I suppose), putting up a healthy number of catches in each game, including a nine-catch day against Syracuse, before being bottled up by the fierce Michigan defense. He’ll have just the kind of game script we want to see a WR in chasing multiple scores against what has at times been a suspect Ohio State secondary. We’re not going to get much more guaranteed volume than this at a 1.65X multiplier, so Melton is very much in play even though he plays on a team with a relatively low team total.
This article expresses the personal views of the writer and does not reflect the view(s) of SuperDraft in any way.
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